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Jared McCain's 20 points flatter the reference, not our index

The night's biggest grading gap: our Pred1x Grade gives Jared McCain 5.9 where the reference sees 8.2.

By Pred1xPublished How we produce our articles
ENESPT
Jared McCain's 20 points flatter the reference, not our index
NBA

NBA

BASKETBALL
Frost Bank CenterSan Antonio
FINAL21/10WED2026
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City ThunderWinner
Half 28-34

Pred1x grades

01Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGF · Oklahoma City Thunder7.5▼ 0.9
32
PTS
6
REB
4
AST
02Victor WembanyamaFC · San Antonio Spurs7.0▲ 0.0
12
PTS
13
REB
3
AST
03De'Aaron FoxG · San Antonio Spurs6.7▼ 1.1
14
PTS
7
REB
7
AST
04Dylan HarperG · San Antonio Spurs6.4▼ 0.8
18
PTS
7
REB
5
AST
05Chet HolmgrenFC · Oklahoma City Thunder6.3▼ 1.3
14
PTS
7
REB
2
AST
06Jalen WilliamsGF · Oklahoma City Thunder6.3▼ 0.2
12
PTS
7
REB
2
AST
07Stephon CastleG · San Antonio Spurs6.1▼ 1.1
24
PTS
7
REB
1
AST
08Ajay MitchellG · Oklahoma City Thunder6.1▼ 0.5
4
PTS
5
REB
6
AST

The verdict from our index is blunt: the most inflated line of the night belonged to Jared McCain, whose 20 points drew an 8.2 from the reference but only 5.9 on the Pred1x Grade.

Biggest grade gaps

Δ2.3Jared McCainG · Oklahoma City Thunder5.9 vs 8.2
Δ2.0Harrison BarnesF · San Antonio Spurs4.3 vs 6.3
Δ1.9Luke KornetFC · San Antonio Spurs4.6 vs 6.5
Δ1.9Alex CarusoG · Oklahoma City Thunder5.7 vs 7.6
Δ1.6Devin VassellGF · San Antonio Spurs4.8 vs 6.4
Reference rating shown for comparison only; the Pred1x Grade is our own index.

Our numbers strip the shine fast. McCain's 20 points came in 22.1 minutes with just 2 rebounds and 2 assists — a scoring component of 0.6 wrapped around defense (0.271) and rebounding (0.232) that barely register. The same lens cools Stephon Castle: 24 points and 7 rebounds, but one assist and zero defensive signal leave him at 6.1 against a reference 7.2.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander still tops the board at 7.5 (32 PTS, 6 REB, 4 AST), though the reference's 8.4 outruns our efficiency read. Wembanyama is the one clean agreement: 7.0 versus 7.0, his 13 rebounds doing the heavy lifting while scoring sits at 0.253. The Thunder won 116-104 in San Antonio — our grades say the supporting cast mattered less than the reference implies.

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